My election prediction

Dear Friends,

By the end of the day on Tuesday, I hope you will have voted. Additionally, I hope you’ll beg and chide family, friends, and neighbors to vote. Everyone’s participation in this election is essential and could absolutely make a difference.

That said, I’ll speak candidly about what I expect to happen on November 3 and beyond. Here’s the key:

The only way to prevent Donald Trump’s reelection is a massive Biden/Harris blowout on Election Day.

That may happen, but I fear it’s a long shot. Trump has repeatedly made it clear he’s going to challenge the election results if they don’t go his way. The end game for such a challenge is for Trump to declare martial law. But with so many key military leaders opposing Trump, I don’t see that happening.

Trump’s pathway to victory, however illegitimate, is through either the US House of Representatives or the US Supreme Court.

After the election, if Republicans still control 26 delegations in the US House, two or more of the following states with Republican governors could refuse to certify their election results: Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Iowa, Ohio. The US House will then hand the election to Trump.

If, on the other hand, Democrats win a few key congressional races (e.g., Florida, Alaska, Montana) and are able to gain a 26-state-delegation advantage in the US House (as I think is quite possible), Republican governors in the six states listed above could use all sorts of nefarious tactics to suppress and cast doubt on the absentee vote count. That sends the decision to the US Supreme Court, which will rule in favor of Trump as president.

That’s a frightening but realistic scenario. It’s clear to me, as it is to many of you, that Donald Trump is a horrible man who places himself above the law. He will stop at nothing to maintain power, to further consolidate his reach, and to use his position for evil ends.

And yet, he must be stopped. Hopefully, I’m wrong in my prediction. Hopefully, turnout at the polls will be as massive as it was for early voting, and Joe Biden’s victory so overwhelming that no amount of political mischief can tamper with the results.

But if Trump remains president, the fight moves back to the grassroots — back to us. In the end, all struggles for justice hinge upon the will of the people, and when a critical mass refuse to accept tyranny, tyranny tumbles.

So stand strong. Vote! Remain vigilant. Respect others, even those you disagree with politically. Build alliances. And be prepared to take this struggle to the next level.

Ed Fallon


This week’s Fallon Forum is a special post-Election Day broadcast live on KHOI 89.1 FM from 4:00 – 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, November 4. Kathy Byrnes and I co-host with panelists Rekha Basu, Pascha Morgan, and Charles Goldman joining us for election analysis and a discussion of what comes next. The program will also livestream on the Fallon Forum Facebook page.

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Ed Fallon