Dear Friends,
LISTEN TO THIS WEEK’S PROGRAM (with cohosts Ed Fallon and Charles Goldman)
(00:50) Biden’s poll numbers go from bad to worse;
(19:05) China and the US discuss climate and nukes;
(36:34) A review of Tuesday’s election;
(53:45) November garden Q & A, with Kathy Byrnes.
We’re a year out from the 2024 presidential election, yet I’m ready to pick a winner. My prediction might surprise you. But first, some thoughts on Tuesday’s election:
DES MOINES. Some say voters rejected the message of progressive candidates for Mayor and City Council. I don’t see it that way. Candidates’ messages were fine, for the most part. But it’s hard to beat an incumbent. Between name recognition and the big money it often attracts (it did), incumbents and defacto incumbents won all five races.
Speaking of being outspent, I hadn’t intended to be the only public voice opposed to spending $350 million to expand the airport. It turns out I was. I spent $0. Airport proponents spent at least $30,000. My side lost 80%-20%. Ouch.
The biggest news locally was the suburban school board elections. The candidates supported by a far-right “Christian” organization lost. All of them. Yup. The radical religious right got its clock cleaned and its Bible thumped. Good to know that Iowans aren’t inclined to live in a theocracy.
OHIO. Voters passed a constitutional amendment 57%-43% to keep abortion legal through roughly 23 weeks of pregnancy. Ohio is now the seventh state to vote on abortion since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade. All seven have gone pro-choice.
KENTUCKY. Gov. Andy Beshear was handily reelected. A friend in Kentucky shared this observation: “Andy is a symbol of middle American values. He cares, and as a grandson of a rural Dawson Springs preacher, knows how to approach an issue with moral conviction.” He also handled two natural disasters well and is part of a family political dynasty.
VIRGINIA. Democrats flipped the House of Delegates and kept control of the State Senate. Virginians also elected the South’s first transgender state senator.
HOUSING was on the ballot in Washington state. In Spokane, 75.4% voted to criminalize homeless encampments within 1,000 feet of schools, parks, playgrounds, and licensed child care facilities. I’d be shocked if that doesn’t get challenged in court. Interestingly, nearly all the candidates in city races who supported that draconian ballot measure lost.
Meanwhile, in Seattle, voters approved nearly $1 billion for affordable housing. Similarly, in Santa Fe, New Mexico, and Boulder, Colorado, over 70% of voters supported affordable housing initiatives.
CRIMINAL JUSTICE. In Jackson, Mississippi, District Attorney Jody Owens beat challenger Darla Palmer by almost 3 to 1. Owens sees drug addiction as a public health issue and has also pledged not to prosecute abortion cases.
MARIJUANA. Back to Ohio, where voters chose to legalize the use of marijuana for recreational use, 57%-43%.
RANKED CHOICE VOTING. In Michigan, the cities of Royal Oak, Kalamazoo, and East Lansing approved measures to adopt ranked choice voting.
So yeah, overall, coast-to-coast, not a bad election. Onward to …
BIDEN’S POLL NUMBERS. In September, 2016, I warned (to much derision) that Trump had a decent shot at winning. Last year, I predicted that Trump’s trial tribulations would help him nail down the nomination.
Earlier this year, based on polls showing that Biden and Trump were virtually tied, I warned “the way things are going, Joe Biden is going to lose to Donald Trump in November, 2024.”
The latest polls show Trump ahead of Biden in five swing states. This isn’t going to get better, folks. If you’re a Never Trumper, tell Biden to step aside. Give him a nice plaque and thank him for his service (what I’ve heard called “plaque and whack”). Then open up the primary for a spirited contest allowing the strongest Democratic champions to joust for the right to take on Trump.
That’s a great plan, yes? Is it going to happen? Absolutely not. The DNC’s collective head is buried so deep in the sands of the Potomac River that it can’t see what is increasingly obvious to more and more of us.
Which brings me to my prediction as to who will win the presidency:
ROBERT F KENNEDY, JR. That’s right. This is by no means an endorsement. It’s a recognition that Republicans are hell bent on again nominating the least-qualified man ever to serve as president, while the Democratic Party is hell bent on sticking with a man who may have once been qualified to serve as president but is no longer up to the task, and certainly won’t be by this time next year.
Kennedy’s no spring chicken, and some of his views are extremely controversial. He’ll pull votes from both Trump and Biden, enough to win next November. He probably won’t have the money that Trump and Biden have, but he’ll have far broader populist appeal.
Besides, he’s a Kennedy. Remember what I said earlier about being a defacto incumbent? If you’re the fourth Kennedy to run for president in the past 60 years, you’ve got as much name recognition as any candidate could ever hope to enjoy. Even one who’s been in office for 40 years. Even one who hosted his own reality show for 15 years.
Thanks for reading, listening, and taking action!
Ed Fallon
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