Dear Friends,

LISTEN TO THIS WEEK’S PROGRAM

Ah, me and food. We go way back. It was love at first bite. Through the years, I’ve only become more passionate about growing, cooking, eating, digesting, and talking about food.

If you concur that food oughta be about more than just shoving some pre-fab glop down your pie hole, you’ll appreciate the first segment of this week’s program. Dr. Joel Fuhrman — “an American celebrity doctor who advocates a plant-based diet (Wikipedia)” — is my first guest. Joel and I agree on a lot, but not everything. My omnivorous-locavarian diet doesn’t quite fit Joel’s nutritarian model. It’s a good conversation and starts at the two-minute mark. Give it a listen, then let me know what’s on your plate today.

Also on this week’s program:

• National ramifications of the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election;
• Iowa Supreme Court rules against legislative “log-rolling;”
• Big hog farmer still in business despite dozens of violations;
• Harvard students call out a climate prof on the board of Conoco/Phillips;
• For our Farm & Food segment, Kathy Byrnes and I answer April garden questions.

The topic I want to dig into this week is the potential impact of Donald Trump’s arrest on the 2024 presidential election. Mark Clipsham joins me for that conversation, beginning at the 21-minute mark. Like Trump’s followers who compare him to Jesus, Mark and I couldn’t help but notice the irony of Trump being arrested during Holy Week.

Yes, as offensive as it is, the frequency of Trump-Jesus references is astounding. There’s this tweet by attorney Joseph McBride: “President Trump will be arrested during Lent—a time of suffering and purification for the followers of Jesus Christ. As Christ was crucified, and then rose again on the 3rd day, so too will Trump.”

There’s also this billboard from a couple years back:

My view on Trump? He’s an unstable, power-hungry narcissist with an unprecedented disdain for civility and honesty. Do I agree he should be prosecuted for his crimes? Absolutely.

Yet legal action against Trump may have unfortunate consequences. Last year, I stated that bringing Trump to trial would help solidify his support among Republican primary voters. That’s happening, and the way things are going, Trump is almost certain to win the nomination.

That makes Democratic strategists giddy. They think another Trump-Biden showdown assures Biden of a second term. Yet that analysis is deeply flawed.

Consider a few numbers. In 2016, Trump received 63 million votes. In 2020, he got 74 million votes — 11 million more than when he won in 2016!

Biden won in 2020 in part because turnout was off the charts, with 66.1% of eligible Americans voting. In comparison, turnout in 2016 was 59.2%. That means about 17 million more people voted in 2020 than in 2016.

Who were these new voters? A lot of them were millennials. According to the US Census Bureau, “for citizens ages 18-34, 57% voted in 2020, up from 49% in 2016.”

What motivates a lot of millennials? The climate crisis — and many are really unhappy with President Biden. In fact, a July 14, 2022, Pew Research Center survey found that “Among Democrats ages 18 to 29, 26% say the Biden administration’s climate policies are taking the country in the wrong direction.” That number likely looks a lot worse after the President’s two recent, highly unpopular decisions in favor of Big Oil.

The bottom line is that a key element of Biden’s winning coalition feels badly betrayed. As a candidate for president, Biden promised an end to drilling on federal lands and in the Gulf. He also emphasized his opposition to the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), even saying, “take my word, I’ve never broken my word.”

Despite those promises:

• Biden refused to shut down the Dakota Access Pipeline;
• He recently allowed the Conoco/Phillips’ Willow drilling project to proceed in the Arctic;
• He just approved more oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico.

Young voters are, arguably, the most important component of Biden’s base. If even a modest chunk of that demographic opts to not vote in 2024, we could see Trump back in the White House.

To be clear, I DO NOT WANT THIS TO HAPPEN! If Biden is the Democratic nominee, I will most certainly vote for him and encourage others to do so as well.

Most Democratic pundits will say I’m wrong, just as they said I was wrong when, three months before the 2016 election, I warned that Trump could win. As it looks now, the likely problem in 2024 is the same problem Democrats had in 2016: an enthusiasm gap.

But there are two things Democrats could do to fix this problem:

ONE. Pressure President Biden to reverse his decisions on the Willow project, drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, and DAPL.

TWO. Encourage a competitive primary. Marianne Williamson is already in the race. Others could jump in, and that would put additional pressure on Biden to stay true to his word on climate. Besides, competitive primaries are almost always a good thing — both for the Party and for democracy itself.

Thanks for reading, listening, and taking action. Please consider a donation to our work.

Ed Fallon

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Please support the local businesses and non-profits who make this program possible. Click on their logos on the Fallon Forum website and in our weekly email, and visit Dr. Drake Family Psychiatry, Story County Veterinary Clinic, Bold Iowa, and Birds & Bees Urban Farm. Thanks to Des Moines Irish Session for providing our bumper music, and thank you for supporting the civil alternative to the shock jocks!

Ed Fallon